Disruption in business is well understood. The incumbent, a large profitable giant corporation which has built a monopoly over decades becomes complacent, forgets how they got to the top and focuses on maximising profits and protecting its turf at the expense of innovation and real growth. The disruptors change everything. They move fast and break things. They have no respect for the status quo and no regard for ‘how things have always been done’ and certainly no respect or fear of the incumbent. They are hungrier and prepared to do whatever is necessary to prevail. That’s why they win. Relentless pursuit of their objective against a comfortable and disorganised incumbent.
This is also the way disruption of the world order works in geopolitics. It doesn’t happen as often on the geopolitical level, but it is certainly happening now. It’s the way empires rise and fall, and it’s been like this for centuries. The USA, European nations, and much of the West are the country equivalents of giant corporations. Fat, lazy and content. Rightly or wrongly China and Russia are disruptors prepared to use methods, force, and tactics that the comfortable nations are not accustomed to anymore.
There is perhaps no better example of this than the juxtaposition of UK and US politics (in disarray and leaders losing power) vs China and Russia (leaders consolidating power). This is significant as we approach conflict situations of the disorganised vs organised. Unfocused vs focused. Those that can’t act decisively and those that can.
Unless the West adopts a more competitive and strategic mentality and realises it’s in a fight for not only relevance but survival, they risk the same fate as the corporate giants who did not prepare for disruption. It’s critical that Western nations adapt to the changing geopolitical landscape to mitigate their vulnerabilities to the emerging threats from these disruptive nations.
There are some unique parameters with respect to the battle ground for any conflicts that loom ahead. Supply chains and energy supply in a globalised world economy have become weaponised. Other key areas of concern include state sponsored cyber-attacks and even social media. We are all familiar with the power of platforms like Facebook and Twitter to influence people. However more importantly will be Tik Tok. Ownership of the world’s most popular social media app among young people is with China.
People tend to focus on privacy and data issues in relation to Tik Tok and while that is a genuine concern, I would be more concerned with young people getting entertainment and information via what amounts to a modern day trojan horse. At some point Western governments will move to warn people against using the app but if we move into a deeper conflict, it will be banned and cut off.
Russia’s threats to escalate and use nuclear weapons should not be taken lightly. They have on their side a dangerous precedent of such weapons being used pre-emptively against an adversary when the US bombed Japan in 1945. While a win for Ukraine would be great and just for freedom, the reality is that it would raise the spectre of a massive escalation and retaliation from Russia if they have nothing to lose. A drawn-out war that weakens Russia over years may be a better result for world peace. Regime change is often touted but that is fraught with danger. The last thing the world needs is a younger more aggressive and ambitious version of Putin.
Strides are being made when it comes to restructuring trade and supply chains. These will need to be modernised for the new circumstances emerging in the world. Reshoring manufacturing and services and securing energy supplies need to happen as quickly as possible. This is a huge investment opportunity but also an essential strategic requirement for the West to become as independent as possible in the years ahead of any potential conflict. The sooner the better for nations and businesses.
The reality is that this is an opportunity for the West to reinvent itself. As in business, competition often awakens the slumbering giant to action. The rise of these disruptive nations may well prove to be the catalyst that is needed to refocus the West on what made their nations so great and bring forth a new age of innovation and productivity that is both sustainable and prosperous.
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