For all the uncertainty over the last 2 years with the pandemic, investment markets across the world had performed very well. However, 2022 is already shaping up as a more difficult year for investors with the All-Ordinaries index down over 6%, the S&P500 down over 8% and the NASDAQ down 13% all in the last few weeks. Markets are going to continue to be challenging as we move from an environment of low interest rates, low inflation, and significant government stimulus to one of rising inflation, higher interest rates and a wind back of government stimulus.
From an investor’s perspective, I think the pandemic will largely be over by June as the omicron variant continues to spread throughout the world like wildfire over the next couple of months and we move to the endemic phase. Obviously, a more serious variant could emerge, but for investors, I expect we are through the worst. If that’s the case, then all of these issues slowly start to rectify themselves. The disruption to supply chains will work themselves out over the next 12 months and with that inflation will ease too. Interest rates will then stabilise.
To me the most important theme is the continued rise in all facets of technology, not only for 2022, but for the next decade and beyond. It underpins everything. It determines the areas we invest in and those we bypass; it determines the companies we buy and those we avoid. It is central to our investment thesis and generating returns over the long term. Outside of the big tech giants there has already been very significant falls in the prices of pure tech stocks. This is not unreasonable given their high prices and adjusting for rising interest rates. However, as markets retreat exceptional long-term buying opportunities are emerging in this area. Patience is key.
Perhaps the biggest threat to the Australian economy is the slowdown in China on the back of their property and debt issues. China appears to be dealing with this situation so as to protect the country from any major financial catastrophe however, as always, their methods are opaque and do not provide the outside world with great confidence in the overall system. Importantly China’s president, Xi Jinping, needs to ensure the nation’s stability as he locks in his next term later in the year. What is most clear though is that the Chinese economy is slowing, and that Australia’s economy will be directly impacted by this.
While there are always geopolitical concerns and the risk of conflict it appears to me that the USA and the west will have a more challenging time than usual in 2022. Russian troops at the Ukraine border are the latest to add to ongoing threat of China invading Taiwan. I expect China and Russia to coordinate the timing of their provocations as to apply pressure on the USA and its allies, forcing them to either prioritise one potential conflict over the other or spread themselves thin. Either way, rising geopolitical instability is an emerging concern to note.
Energy as a theme is similar to technology in that it encompasses several important sub-themes. Captured here is everything from oil and gas to uranium and renewables. Importantly ESG may be the most influential sub-theme here as energy use, production and sustainable business practices are increasingly prioritised by investors, consumers, and leaders across the world. On the flip side under-investment in traditional energy will create distortions in markets and potentially create opportunities. Demand for energy globally will continue to rise and will likely require a pragmatic approach to avoid dislocation in energy markets in the short term. Big opportunity in multiple areas.
Overall, the inflationary pressures driving interest rate rises are a short-term game changer, even if it’s just for the next 12 months. Higher interest rates not only mark the end of easy money but the end of easy investing across all asset classes. Add to this a slowdown in China, rising geopolitical risks across the world and the now familiar backdrop of pandemic and there is more uncertainty than ever. Looking ahead the investing environment for 2022 appears more challenging than it has in recent years. The key variables that were previously so conducive to growth have turned and a tougher outlook will be the result. Returns on most asset classes will be lower than we have come to expect. As always though there will opportunities that present themselves despite the challenges.
10 themes for 2022
Continued rise of technology
Rising interest rates
Inflation risk
Covid variants and vaccine
Supply chain disruption and economic impact
China economic issues
Geopolitical risks
Energy
Govt debt and spending
Bond market concerns