The whole issue of Covid-19 and how to manage it is probably the second most polarising topic I have seen in 10 years (the most polarising was easily Donald Trump’s presidency). There are many different perspectives and people don’t hesitate to share their particularly strong views on the best way to deal with it. Ironically, I’ve not heard anyone say: “well it’s hard to know, this is new territory, there are going to be mistakes but we’ve got to pull together and work it out as quickly as we can.” No one says that, instead everyone is an expert because they listened to a podcast and have a mate who also agrees with them.
What I have observed is that no one is objective on this issue. Everyone’s view is directly impacted by the most serious impact Covid-19 has on them and their family. If they are running a café in the CBD and face financial ruin, then lockdowns are ridiculous, and we need to learn to live with Covid-19. If someone has a child with pre-existing health concerns, they will tell you vaccines are essential to protect the community, and anyone not vaccinated is being irresponsible.
Understanding that the paradigm everyone views these topics through is important to separate the macro from the micro when discussing these topics. None of these individual views are unreasonable. If lockdowns will potentially ruin your business, then your view is not unreasonable. If your loved ones have pre-existing health issues your view that everyone needs to get vaccinated is not unreasonable. Conversely, if you are worried about the side effects of the vaccine, and want to wait, your view is not unreasonable. That’s the individual decision and views.
In terms of how this plays out from a macro perspective, we need to look at the best outcomes that can be achieved from a financial and economic perspective as well as health perspective. There will be collateral damage and criticism regardless of the decisions made and those people will reasonably have a grievance at the individual level. But from a big picture perspective, in the best interests of our nation, everyone would agree on one thing: We need to get back to normal life as soon as possible. We also have the means to do this but for some reason we continue down a path of indifference, half measures and state-based decisions.
To achieve a return to normal life as soon as possible the number 1 priority of the Australian Federal and State Governments must be getting the majority of the population vaccinated. From a health perspective it minimises the risk to everyone of death or illness as a result of Covid-19. It also minimises the interruption from a business perspective from lock downs and other restrictions and gives the economy every chance to move forward unimpeded. I say majority because people must be able to choose. They may have valid concerns and freedom to choose is a critical part of our society. However, there are plenty of incentives that can be introduced to ensure the majority are motivated to get vaccinated.
The current lockdowns are hardly a surprise, and it is very easy to see that Australia is lagging most of the world with our vaccine roll out. Currently Israel have over 60% of their population fully vaccinated, Chile and Hungary above 50% and the USA and UK over 45%. Australia sits well and truly behind most of the world at 4%. Ultimately, this will slow down our economic recovery. Overwhelmingly, Australia has managed the pandemic extremely well. Compare our situation to other nations and it’s clear that many other countries have endured major problems. But we have become a victim of our own success. As well as we managed the early stages of the pandemic it has led to complacency across the board.
Other countries were desperate and thankful for a vaccine because thousands and thousands of people were dying, and their hospital systems were overwhelmed. In Australia we were not desperate, we were slightly inconvenienced, some people were concerned. But the majority of Australians went about their lives much as they did before, occasionally wearing masks, standing further apart and using more hand sanitiser than we probably needed to.
There are a range of reasons for the slow up take and roll out of the vaccine. Regardless, I would expect that the current situation will be the catalyst for the government to step up the roll out and for the majority of the population to get vaccinated. Until this happens, we are going to continue to face the prospect of interruption to business, social restrictions, and potential health issues. Once it’s done, we can move forward as a nation and return to normal.