Cash is still king (for now)

Right now, we are in one of the most unusual times for investors in history. The reversal of easy money as inflation bites for the first time in over 15 years has made managing money especially difficult. Where do you put your money? Where do you hide? There is no simple answer. Almost every asset class is going backwards. Shares down 20%. Bonds down 12%. Fixed corporate bonds down almost 20%. The property fall is starting now that rates are rising. None of these are great returns when considering where to deploy cash, so we wait and continue to hold a significant portion of our portfolios in cash.

Why do we hold so much cash? When you’re getting somewhere between 0%-3% and inflation is 5.1% it’s still not a great option. In real terms you’re going backwards. But where else would you rather be when every asset class is falling? In the past 6 months cash has been easily the best performing asset class. While other asset classes continue to fall and opportunities emerge, I still believe it is very likely many of those same assets will be cheaper in the next few months. So, while we look forward to investing our cash as soon as possible, there are very few places to deploy funds right now.

One of the lasting lessons I took from the GFC 15 years ago was that the most experienced investors and companies were not only in great shape going into the downturn, but they also used those times to buy assets at prices that were previously unimaginable. In the midst of a once in a generation economic collapse, while everyone else was worried about survival, they were able to take advantage of a once in a generation opportunity to invest when no one else would or could. There were many examples but there were 2 deals that stood out to me at the time. 

The first, was Warren Buffett coming to the rescue of the banking system in the fall out from the Lehman Brothers and Bears Sterns collapses. He invested US$5 billion in banking giant Goldman Sachs. But he didn’t just invest. He structured the deal on terms completely in his favour. He bought shares at record a low price, but they were structured as preference shares, so he was higher up the security chain and also received a 10% interest pa for his investment and a range of other options in the agreement. He had the cash available when it was needed most and was able to negotiate the terms he wanted. 

The second, was the Commonwealth Banks acquisition of BankWest for $2 billion. Only the most unusual of circumstances made this deal possible. Firstly, HBOS (Halifax Bank of Scotland) was on its knees and desperate to raise cash through asset sales for its own survival, so it was very unusual to have a forced seller of that sized asset from such a large owner. Secondly, in normal times there was no way that deal was getting past the competition regulator. But in times of a complete breakdown in the system these things don’t matter as the integrity and function of the market overrides everything in an emergency. US banking giant JP Morgan completed similar deals in the US. The strong get stronger.

What I realised then was that in times of genuine crisis is where the greatest deals of your life are made. Deals that would otherwise never be available. It was also noticeable to me that the main deal makers were the old investors who had seen multiple market down turns. They understood that being prepared and patient was key, and they moved in when others were desperate and almost no one else was buying. There is no benefit in heading into a downturn fully invested or worse, highly leveraged. That is more likely to put you on the other side of the deal equation and ending up a forced or distressed seller. These deals are only available to those who are prepared and waiting for the opportunities to unfold. 

In the current situation, it is impossible to know where the best opportunities will arise, and in reality, we will need to continue waiting to see how it all plays out. A lot will depend on just how bad the downturn becomes and how far markets end up falling. There are early signs that technology companies and those in the retail and banking sectors will be likely candidates in due course simply because of how beaten up those stocks are already. When the dust settles in the months ahead those who have been most patient will be in the best position to take advantage of the opportunities that have become the most attractive. 

General Advice Disclaimer: This information is of a general nature only and may not be relevant to your particular circumstances. The circumstances of each investor are different, and you should seek advice from an investment adviser who can consider if the strategies and products are right for you. Historical performance is often not a reliable indicator of future performance. You should not rely solely on historical performance to make investment decisions.

How Much Further Will Share Markets Fall?

We’ve finally moved into bear market territory. We’ve been sitting on an overweight cash position for most clients for months and waiting for markets to fall sufficiently to deploy these funds. For existing portfolios, we typically have between 20%-30% in cash (or similar) depending on the client and for new clients who joined in the last 6-12 months we’ve held 60%-80% in cash. The main question I’m being asked right now is this:

Is it time to buy?

My answer is no, not yet. The time to buy will most likely be when people stop asking. Investors are simply not yet scared enough. When markets are driven by fear, people no longer want to buy. For all the volatility and the fall in the market to date, we haven’t seen markets truly capitulate into a free fall. That’s when the best buying opportunities will be available – when no one wants to buy. We haven’t seen real fear and I think we need to see that before this market reaches a bottom. The next question I get after that is this:

Just how much further do you think markets will fall then?

Obviously, that’s a difficult question to answer because there are so many variables, and we just don’t know how they will ultimately play out. But I think the falls in share markets so far are really just in relation to interest rate rises being factored in and markets making a one-off adjustment from extremely good times of low inflation and low rates to the opposite. In my opinion, markets haven’t really adjusted for bad news or a bad economic environment. It seems increasingly likely that is just around the corner. I think there are lower corporate earnings ahead and slower economic growth. All of these are yet to be properly forecast by the big institutions and that will likely come next in the form of downgrades. I think there is some way to go before the market finds its low point.

Additionally, we have the prospect of higher interest rates than markets expect. If that plays out, markets will likely fall further to adjust to the shock of a second round of rate rises. For a while, the consensus was that central banks in the US and Aust may end up at around 3% but it looks increasingly like that it is going to be north of 4%. Keep in mind that central banks are always behind the curve on these calls and then they panic and over tighten. We’re starting to see talk of bigger rate rises at the next meetings of 0.5% and 0.75% but to me, they are not panicking yet, that’s just them catching up to reality. The Central Bank panicking comes later when it’s obvious to everyone that they’ve caught up, but they keep raising rates.

This is clearly a once in a generation recalibration for the global economy. However, the flipside is that I don’t believe (at this stage) it becomes a GFC style event where markets fall 56% or a 1929 style crash that led to The Great Depression where markets fell 89% (not a misprint!). At this stage, there is no evidence of the level of systemic problems within the global economy that occurred during those events. The global banking system is strong, and markets are functioning relatively well so far. That’s not to say it can’t happen and I am acutely aware of the potential for black swan events to emerge from left field when there are just so many volatile situations in the world right now.

But my expectation at the moment is that markets finish down from their highs somewhere in the range of 25%-40%. I think that’s fairly realistic. I would be surprised if we are at the low point now. We are certainly getting closer, with markets broadly down 20%, but I don’t think we are there yet. As we enter the next phase, that’s when we will start seeing the sort of buying opportunities emerge that we have been waiting for. That’s not to say there are no opportunities to buy now because as markets fall, I am increasingly seeing specific opportunities in areas or companies I am comfortable buying. But in terms of deploying the large cash positions we have been holding, we will continue to be patient.

General Advice Disclaimer: This information is of a general nature only and may not be relevant to your particular circumstances. The circumstances of each investor are different, and you should seek advice from an investment adviser who can consider if the strategies and products are right for you. Historical performance is often not a reliable indicator of future performance. You should not rely solely on historical performance to make investment decisions.

Historical performance is often not a reliable indicator of future performance. You should not rely solely on historical performance to make investment decisions.

Consumer Spending Crunch Is Just Starting

Investment markets are about to enter their next phase as we move from the theory of what might happen to the reality of a consumer-led spending crunch. What we have seen over the last 6 months or so as markets fell has really been based on expectations of how all the variables and uncertainty will play out. I’m referring to the theoretical implications of what was ahead, anticipation of higher rates, anticipation of how higher rates might impact homeowners, how inflation impacts consumers and so on. Overlay anticipation of the flow on effects of the war, the potential impact of the rising price of food, fuel, and energy and it’s been clear for a while that consumers have a few problems heading their way.

But all those variables have now arrived and are hitting consumers in the hip pocket. This is the start of the reality phase. It will be interesting to watch this transition unfold because it takes time for the data to come through and reflect what is happening in a way that investors and institutions can reliably use. It will result in mixed messages and head fakes that will slow down how markets react to the new reality. There will be data pointing to strong spending in certain areas. For example, expect spending on travel and holidays to be strong in the next few months. Commentators will point to this to demonstrate a resilient consumer. But don’t be fooled, that isn’t the case. There will be several of these examples.

The reality is consumers are already saving less and having to borrow more. They haven’t yet adjusted their overall spending habits for their new reality. There might be a lot of pent-up demand for services like travel and holidays, but that’s not representative of a resilient consumer. It’s being driven by the psychological need for people to finally go on that trip after 3 years of lockdowns and false starts through the pandemic. It doesn’t matter the cost; they will go regardless of whether they can afford it. That’s going to change quickly and dramatically as the interest rate increases start to bite, the big power bills roll in, not to mention the astronomical price of fuel and the weekly grocery shop skyrocketing. Consumers will need to tighten their belts.

This will have a dramatic impact on businesses globally. At the end of the day, consumers have a set amount of money to spend. If the price of all the essential spending is going up, a lot, then they simply have less to allocate to discretionary spending. In the very short term, they can use savings and credit cards, but that isn’t sustainable, and consumers will adjust quickly. Wage increases are not keeping up with these increased costs so expecting consumers to maintain previous discretionary spending levels when they simply have less to spend makes no sense at all. Discretionary spending patterns are going to change, and you don’t need to wait for the data to understand that.

So, what does this mean for business and investment markets? The short answer is not good. Recent data from the US retail sector from Amazon, Walmart, Target, and a host of others in the past few weeks clearly tells us that discretionary consumer spending is already being impacted by rising costs and interest rates. Perhaps most concerning is that these big retailers are struggling to cope with the dramatic deterioration in conditions. They have increased revenue due to inflation, but their margins and bottom line are being hit hard. That is a major concern for company profit and valuations.

The initial phase of this bear market has really been brought about by the jump in interest rate expectations globally. That’s forced a re-rating on all stocks. If the market was previously trading at a Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio of say 25, as interest rate expectations went up the market adjusted that to about 20 which equates to about a 20% drop in stock prices. That was just phase 1 of the bear market.

This next phase is all about earnings and if the earnings in that P/E ratio equation start to fall, that is the next major issue for stock markets, the impact of all of this on company earnings. Sentiment will move from concern around inflation and interest rates to concern about growth rates for the real economy, lower corporate profits, and earnings.

From a stock market perspective, this introduces the basis of the next leg down in my view. We are going to see analysts and institutions start to dial down their forecasts further, for economies, markets, and individual companies. Much of the change in markets will be sector specific. We’ve seen the first casualties being tech stocks, construction and most recently retail and consumer discretionary.

It is critical to have your portfolio weighted to the right sectors to avoid the potential land mines that can end up detonating when bad news comes. It seems counter intuitive right now but what’s to come from businesses if their earnings fall will be cost cutting and job losses and the start of a downward spiral for the economy. Consumers are broadly in good shape now, but that is going to change rapidly if cost pressures persist.

General Advice Disclaimer: This information is of a general nature only and may not be relevant to your particular circumstances. The circumstances of each investor are different, and you should seek advice from an investment adviser who can consider if the strategies and products are right for you. Historical performance is often not a reliable indicator of future performance. You should not rely solely on historical performance to make investment decisions.

A World Splitting in Two

In the quest for lower costs, efficiency in supply chains and productivity gains, globalisation was pursued relentlessly. It made sense for a long time. Yet, for all the benefits gained from increased globalisation over the last 4 or 5 decades, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has highlighted its major fault lines and flaws. The benefits of interdependent economies and globalised trade in times of war have been exposed as vulnerabilities.

What is evident now is that the world is deglobalizing. But this is happening only to a point. The primary theme emerging is that every nation must make all decisions through the paradigm of their national interest. There can be no sustainability without national security. No trade or investment without first considering the national interest. Moving forward they must go hand in hand. It makes sense that national security and independence of core strategic functions for a nation must be a priority.

Germany will go down in history as the poster child for what can go wrong when economic or ideological objectives are pursued without sufficient emphasis on their strategic national interests. While well intentioned, by becoming increasingly dependent on Russian oil and gas, Germany have left themselves at the mercy of Russia and provided Putin with all the leverage he needed to pursue his military objectives.

When push comes to shove, I have no doubt that Russia will turn off the tap and stop the gas supply to Germany. That will have devastating and far-reaching implication for Europe and its economy. Of course, Germany will give in to any Russian demands before that happens. Look for smaller nations to be hit with cuts in gas supply when the Russians feel the need to fire a warning shot across the bow of Europe. While oil embargos play out well from a PR perspective and placate the masses of concerned citizens across the world the reality is far different. These are relatively ineffective in my opinion.

Firstly, there will be countries that end up buying Russian oil. The opportunity is simply too great for India, China, and a number of other eastern nations to not buy it. The supply of oil will ultimately be redistributed and no doubt other countries struggling without Russian oil will find a willing seller in India or others who are more acceptable nations for the west to deal with. The oil embargo sounds punishing but it’s unlikely to be real and countries will find a way around it out of necessity in my view.

Secondly, Europe is far too fragmented to maintain the unity that initially appeared so promising. As situations within nations become more extreme in relation to both energy and food shortages the leaders of each country will ultimately be forced to do whatever is needed to get their nation through the crisis. Simultaneous food and energy shortages will mean every nation for themselves.

The unity of the European region will face one of its most difficult challenges in its history in the months and years ahead as they face twin crises of energy and food shortages. Putin and Russia, for all their military ineptitude so far, are sufficiently well versed in the region to understand that as the situation for Europe becomes more dire and individual nations suffer that Europe will likely fragment. Putin will press his advantage here in an attempt to divide and conquer.

The changing geopolitical landscape has changed the world forever. We will enter a phase of bifurcation of the global economy. This is a 5–10-year process but it’s already happening. There will be far reaching consequences for the way nations and companies reorganise their operations and supply chains.

This will accelerate the split in the world between the East and the West. On one side US, Europe, and their allies such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia. On the other, I expect far closer bonds to develop between Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, and several eastern European nations, such as Hungry and Serbia. Expect India to walk the tightrope between both sides as they have 1.4 billion people to provide for and are unlikely to have the inclination or luxury of picking sides.

But it is not only nations that need to protect themselves and mitigate these risks. There are significant risks to the world’s biggest companies that need to be addressed too. Having supply chains based in China to build products for customers around the world is now the equivalent of Germany sourcing their energy from Russia. It’s a vulnerability and you can guarantee that companies around the world are working feverishly to build out contingency plans and capacity in other areas of the world. There are many thousands of companies in this position with the highest profile and most exposed being giants such as Apple and Tesla.

While all of this is critical, almost every aspect of this process will be inflationary. From now on the model pursued will not be the cheapest and most efficient method of supply and production, but the one that does not make us vulnerable to our potential enemies. Companies and nations will need to act with urgency to ensure they de-risk their exposure in the decade ahead as the world splits into two competing economies. Any companies that do not address these vulnerabilities will become uninvestable because of the existential risks they face.


General Advice Disclaimer: This information is of a general nature only and may not be relevant to your particular circumstances. The circumstances of each investor are different, and you should seek advice from an investment adviser who can consider if the strategies and products are right for you. Historical performance is often not a reliable indicator of future performance. You should not rely solely on historical performance to make investment decisions.

15 Years of Business

Last month marked 15 years since I started Fortress. It was April 2007; I was 30 and married with 4 young children between ages 3 and 8. It was just before the GFC hit and the Australian share market would fall from November 2007 until February 2009 by 56%. To say it was a challenge is an understatement. Over the years there have been several crises to contend with. That doesn’t change, as I have said before - there will always be another crisis. But that’s the thing about investment markets, if it was easy everyone would do it. You learn far more as an investor and fund manager in a bad market than you do in the good times.

Personally, I prefer it when there is a crisis as it makes the work more interesting. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not sitting here hoping for some sort of disaster but there’s nothing quite like a global crisis to make you lock in and focus, it’s a new puzzle to solve. That’s not for everyone. Believe it or not, it is actually more difficult to win new clients when markets are good because every fund manager and adviser looks like a genius. All clients are generally happy. It’s when everything turns to mud that sorts the wheat from the chaff. We are starting to see the fallout from that now as markets have pulled back.

Unfortunately, it is not uncommon in the investment industry for business models to evolve that are lucrative for the institutions more so than the clients. Big fees for the least amount of work go unquestioned in the good times when the rising tide raises all boats. Set and forget strategies and quoting Warren Buffett a couple of times will do the job. But the reality is that just leads to complacency on all sides. The investment industry gets lazy, and the clients go along with it because the returns look okay. But what happens is that the complacency leads to passive and generic portfolios and perhaps most dangerously, a much higher level of risk built into investors’ portfolios than they should ever have had.

I recall back in the GFC and our early days that our portfolios were down only about 15% at a time when most portfolios had more than halved. We held a lot of cash, and it was a great outcome for clients. But no one thanks you when you lose them money even if it could have been far worse. But what I also learned back then was that people do notice how you respond in a crisis. How you operate under pressure. Do you step up or do you step back? I personally think that’s the ultimate measure of an individual’s character, how you respond under fire. Thinking independently about the world, economy, and markets to form a view is a critically important part of that. So is communicating that view and the rationale behind it.

As far as the other big lessons I’ve learned in business along the way, there are many. Taking a long-term view in terms of both investment time horizon and in terms of the way technology continues to change the world. But also, taking a long-term view in terms of building the business. But I think the best and most important lessons I’ve learned have been about myself. I think one of the most underrated aspects of performing at a high level come back to developing good habits. That covers discipline, routine, and consistency. I find I am more patient as I get older. I love the investment process and the intellectual challenge of working out what’s going to happen before others do.

I have gained an appreciation for why the great investors such as Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger and George Soros are all doing this into their 90’s. I’m sure the money is a great motivator, but they fall in love with the challenge and the process. The ever-changing world provides you with an endless puzzle to constantly figure out. Every day presents something new and interesting. Like them, I don’t see myself ever retiring because I want to do this for the rest of my life.

The business has evolved over time in terms of services and size of clients. When I first started, we managed investment portfolios but also did financial planning. One of the best decisions I’ve made for the business was to only focus on the part that I loved, managing investment portfolios. Now we have few clients and manage much bigger portfolios. But more importantly every day I’m spending my time doing what I love to do. It’s better for the business, it’s better for me and it’s better for our clients. Our first 15 years in business have been a great success, but the way I see it we are still a young business. I can’t wait to see how we grow and develop in the many decades ahead.

General Advice Disclaimer: This information is of a general nature only and may not be relevant to your particular circumstances. The circumstances of each investor are different, and you should seek advice from an investment adviser who can consider if the strategies and products are right for you. Historical performance is often not a reliable indicator of future performance. You should not rely solely on historical performance to make investment decisions.

Great Companies at Good Prices

One of the more difficult parts of navigating a falling market is when to start buying. It’s easy to become overly bearish as markets fall and sentiment becomes negative. To be clear, while markets especially overseas have fallen substantially, I still think there is more pain ahead. But that doesn’t mean there are not opportunities to buy specific stocks emerging or that it’s too early to think about the types of companies we want to buy down the track once prices have fallen further.

When looking at the universe of companies to invest in you come across a range of business models. But what types of businesses and business models are best? To an extent it depends on the company and industry. Ultimately, you want growth over the long term and reliable profits. Easier said than done, especially in today’s world where technological disruption can reduce a once great business to an also ran in 5-10 years. 

There are two critical elements to investing in stocks. The first is identifying great companies. The second is identifying the price you should pay for that companies shares. These are completely separate issues. Both are critical. While seemingly obvious they are often overlooked by investors. But what types of companies are best? What are the common traits the great companies have that the others don’t have?

I think for the next couple of years it's going to be difficult for a lot of companies that produce physical products. The price of all the materials and components are going up. It's really difficult to source some commodities, especially electronics for example. Then you’ve got supply chain issues which compound all these issues and make it a logistical nightmare for companies to ship their widgets to the stores. 

For that reason, I do think that software will come back into favour at some point when everyone realises that there’s no shortage of software product. The Software as a Service (SaaS) business model is a great business model. It doesn’t cost a lot to add a new subscriber. The right software product is a very attractive business. But not all software companies are the same.

The ideal business for the next few years in my opinion has the following traits:

• Competitive advantage that is difficult for others to replicate

• Business customers not consumers

• Pricing power to fend of rising inflation and costs

• Network effects

• Not making a widget or product where cost inputs are going up dramatically

• Growing profit

• Reliable subscription revenue

• Customers don’t leave – low churn

An example of this type of business would be Microsoft. Microsoft is a great business. It ticks all the boxes I am looking for. As things get tough economically businesses are not going to cut their Microsoft Office 365 subscriptions. There are few reliable alternatives. There is no brand more synonymous with your daily work that Microsoft. Everyday hundreds of millions of people depend on their software, tools, and apps to run their business. They are essential. It's all cloud based and growing.

Apple is another example. It’s a cash cow and a juggernaut. In the very short term given Apple makes hardware I think it’s going to have some issues generating the same level of profit and sales volume in the next 12 months. They are facing a possible consumer led recession, supply chain issues, semiconductor shortage and cost inputs going through the roof. But all these items are one offs. In say 1-2 years they will all have been solved to one extent of another. Apple is such a unique and dominant brand that is well positioned to weather the economic storm ahead.

This may well present an excellent buying opportunity as many unusual factors come together at the same time to uniquely impact the stock.

The business model of the companies you invest in have never been more important. They are going to be tested by the difficult circumstances ahead. That context is important. How does the company and its business strategy hold up under pressure? How does it perform in a recession? With inflation? These are important questions that you should consider for not only every stock you buy going forward but for every stock currently in your portfolio.

General Advice Disclaimer: This information is of a general nature only and may not be relevant to your particular circumstances. The circumstances of each investor are different, and you should seek advice from an investment adviser who can consider if the strategies and products are right for you. Historical performance is often not a reliable indicator of future performance. You should not rely solely on historical performance to make investment decisions.

Will Property Prices Fall?

There are so many issues for investors to navigate at the moment. We’ve got several once in a generation events colliding to create volatility and distortions in not only financial markets but for every type of asset. Any one of these issues would be the leading story of the day in their own right in more normal times.

War in Europe, Global inflation, Rising interest rates, Global food shortage, Energy sanction and shortage, Pandemic, China lockdowns, China slowdown, Supply chain crisis, Rising bond yields, Tech stock price collapse, Yen vs US drop, Sri Lanka crisis.

While it sounds like the missing verse of ‘We didn’t start the fire’ by Billy Joel it has been our reality for the past year or two. Many issues are interlinked to be sure and while they all impact the world it is less obvious in many respects how these all flow through to impact the daily lives of ordinary Australians.

The one issue that will have the biggest direct impact for most Australians, or at least be most relevant in the year ahead, is rising interest rates. This brings me to the elephant in the room.

Australian property prices.

We really aren’t prepared for higher interest rates and their flow on effects. As with most events lately, this will have a once in a generation impact on people with mortgages and force property prices significantly lower. Most are already aware of it but don’t give it much thought as it seems so far away. But the RBA raising rates now puts this firmly on the table. 

Do I think house prices will fall? Yes.

We’ve already seen big falls in bond markets and stock markets globally and property has its turn ahead. I think we are looking at a 20%+ fall in residential property prices here in Australia in 2023.

You have to go back to early 1990’s for the last time there was a property crash. The current environment is set up for a similar repeat. While we are not going to get anywhere near the huge interest rates of the ‘90’s, that won’t stop the problems for the property market. Rates have been so low for so long that a few percent increase is going to cause a lot of pain.

Only a few months ago, the Commonwealth bank warned the RBA if they raise rates by just 1.25% that many borrowers will have financial problems. I think rate increases will go past that level. Many homes owners are overextended already. They go to the bank and ask how much they can borrow. When rates are 2% that amount is a big number. When home loan rates are 6% or higher, those borrowers have a serious financial problem.

Many won’t be able to afford the home, it will result in urgent sales, defaults and forced sales. When this happens at scale, the market becomes flooded with distressed sales and the price of property drops accordingly. Making matters worse is that when people expect asset prices to fall, they stop buying. They wait for a cheaper price which only compounds the problem for the distressed sellers.

Of course, this situation only serves to compound the problems for consumers who are already having to adjust for higher energy and food prices. The wage increases they demand will likely add to inflationary pressures but are not likely to maintain their standard of living. Consumer’s discretionary spending will fall further as they are forced to allocate more of their income to paying their mortgage.

None of this is rocket science, it’s mainly common sense when you simply think through the flow of money and impact of the situation. The reason for hesitance in accepting how this will play out is the cognitive dissonance we experience in understanding what we see right now, which is broadly good economic times still, compared to what this rationalisation tells us is going to happen.

For stock markets, this will have a huge impact in the year ahead. Some sectors will be beneficiaries and others will be causalities. This flows through to sectors as diverse as retail, hospitality, and entertainment. It flows through to the banks, long the mainstay of the Australian share market they will see much lower growth in new business while simultaneously experiencing a rise in bad debts and defaults. From a portfolio perspective careful stock selection has never been more important.

General Advice Disclaimer: This information is of a general nature only and may not be relevant to your particular circumstances. The circumstances of each investor are different, and you should seek advice from an investment adviser who can consider if the strategies and products are right for you. Historical performance is often not a reliable indicator of future performance. You should not rely solely on historical performance to make investment decisions.

Economic Hoons

Well finally the RBA have raised rates. Just how far behind the curve they are would be funny if it wasn’t so serious. It’s been apparent for several months there has been a problem with inflation and that rates needed to be raised. At the very least, it made no sense to hold them at basically zero. You need to be proactive with inflation and knock it on the head early. If you raise rates too soon, you can drop them back down, but it’s when you react too slowly that the inflation genie gets out of the bottle. Then, the only way to reign it in is to raise rates higher, for even longer than expected, and that likely leads to a recession.

Managing an economy is not that different to driving a car. Dropping interest rates is the economic accelerator. Raising them the brake. For the last 15 years, central banks across the world have been driving economies like a 17-year-old P-plater, accelerating as fast as they can only to jam on the brakes on at the last minute. Ironically, all these boring old guys in suits are basically the hoons of the global economy. They appear to be prudent and considered but the reality is that they pose as much danger to the economy as the P-plater does on the road.

We are at the jamming on the brakes phase, so strap in. 

But be mindful that inflation is quite nuanced and interest rates are just one part of the inflationary puzzle we face. A lot of the inflationary pressure is on the supply side, specifically, lack of supply. That’s what is forcing the price of many foods and commodities higher. Rising interest rates are necessary, but they won’t automatically bring the cost of goods down when it’s supply related. So, supply constraints need to be lifted before this part of the inflationary equation eases. That relates to supply chains and the flow on effects of the war in Ukraine and both of those issues are far more difficult to control.

Another critical aspect of the inflation equation locally is the potential for wages growth to skyrocket and compound inflationary pressures. With unemployment at 4% in Australia, politicians chasing an even lower unemployment rate of 3.5% are making a big mistake. While it seems a noble goal, and both the government and the opposition have spoken about wanting to achieve it, they will make the economy worse not better. Super low unemployment is creating a really tight labour market. Employers in many industries simply cannot find enough people.

Both sides of politics only need to talk to business to find out what they need most. They will tell you they need workers. From the mining industry in WA to the hospitality industry in Victoria. They need workers. Throw the doors open and bring in as many overseas workers as needed as soon as possible. If they don’t, wages will explode higher, forcing inflation higher and damaging business. It’s easy for politicians to sell voters on an ever-lower unemployment figure to tout their economic credentials. It is far more difficult to explain why a higher unemployment rate might be better for the economy.

To be clear, for investors right now, it’s not so much high interest rates that are the problem, it’s the transition to high interest rates that’s the problem. That’s why there’s so much volatility right now and likely in the months ahead. Once we actually have higher interest rates then companies and financial markets will have adjusted significantly and settle. It’s getting to that point that will be the most painful for financial markets. There will be opportunities emerge as markets overreact along the way. They are already starting to appear in some sectors, but broadly speaking it’s way too early to start buying.

Yet while I remain bearish in the short term, I am always mindful that there are really great companies that we want to add to our portfolio and the reality is the lower price we can buy them for the better.

General Advice Disclaimer: This information is of a general nature only and may not be relevant to your particular circumstances. The circumstances of each investor are different, and you should seek advice from an investment adviser who can consider if the strategies and products are right for you. Historical performance is often not a reliable indicator of future performance. You should not rely solely on historical performance to make investment decisions.

Feels a Lot Like a Bear Market

In a bull market, momentum relentlessly drives stocks higher. You’ll get occasional pull backs and profit-taking but then it just goes again. We’ve seen that for much of the past decade. Bear markets are basically the opposite and are typically defined as the market falling by 20% from its highs. So far this year, the S&P500 in the US is down about 13%, so we are not there yet, but I think that’s where we are heading soon enough.

One of the problems as you progress through a bear market is that no one wants it to be the case. They want the good times of the bull market to keep going. So, when markets bounce as they did in mid-March everyone likes to think everything is back to normal. Denial kicks in, but the inevitable drop after the bounce comes soon enough. This is called a ‘dead cat bounce’ for exactly the reason the imagery of the phrase conveys.

The S&P500 in the US fell steadily from Jan-March. But then surprisingly (to me at least) it rose 11% in the 2 weeks to the end of March for no good reason, only to fall by the same amount in April. Dead cat bounce. There were a whole range of factors contributing but the most surprising part was just how much it went up. I raise it only to point out the vagaries of the stock market and why you need to be more cautious in bad markets and difficult times. In a bull market, you can buy the dip. In a bear market that is generally a mistake. In a bear market you are best served by waiting. You buy when there is blood in the water.

Perhaps being so cautious will mean you miss out on some upside if the global situation suddenly changes. If that happens, then so be it. The aim of the game in this environment is the preservation of capital in the first instance. Genuine bear markets are not all that common, but they do happen from time to time. As they unfold investors will find every way to talk themselves out of it until it’s impossible to deny. We are getting closer to that point now. Frankly, it’s kind of obvious.

In a bull market, investment and business conditions converge to provide stocks with all they need to rise ever higher. Everything about the economic and geopolitical conditions are favourable and trending up. Currently, the opposite is true, everything looks ugly and is trending the wrong way. Inflation is high and will force central banks across the world to hike interest rates far more dramatically than many expect. The war in Ukraine is causing all sorts of significant flow on effects. Many won’t be felt for months, some years. China’s economy is forecast to slow dramatically especially on the back of their massive lockdowns with covid. The list goes on.

The likelihood of recession globally is increasing. Markets won’t wait for the recession to be here to retreat. They are already retreating in anticipation and as it becomes more apparent in the weeks and months ahead, they will retreat further. So, make no mistake, markets are forward looking. By the time the consumers and businesses across the world are dealing with the reality of a hard economic landing at some point in 2023, markets will already be looking ahead to the recovery. So do not confuse the current economic conditions with what the share market will do. They are operating on different timelines. One (the economy) is the actual conditions and the second (the share market) is anticipating the future conditions.

The earnings numbers for last quarter and guidance for the following one coming from the mega tech this week will be critical to just how quickly markets adjust. Normally, I don’t put that much weight on the quarterly reporting and prefer to focus on the long term. But in this market the quarterly numbers are going to have an outsized impact on the market from here. We’ve seen it recently with Netflix being smashed after failing to deliver. If the mega tech companies report revenue and profit in line with expectations or better, markets probably hold up ok for now. But a miss will be a completely different story.

I expect the next couple of months to be tough. Markets need only a couple of bad news events to really drop their bundle from here. A reality hit confirming what most are concerned about, a consumer lead recession, will sharply turn sentiment negative and potentially push markets into bear market territory. Right now, there are several risk factors that can easily flare up in the next month or two and become the catalyst for the market to react negatively and take a further leg down. There will be great opportunities once markets settle but for now, I remain cautious.

We remain defensively positioned expecting further downside risk. We are overweight cash, floating rate notes, and commodities, especially energy.

General Advice Disclaimer: This information is of a general nature only and may not be relevant to your particular circumstances. The circumstances of each investor are different, and you should seek advice from an investment adviser who can consider if the strategies and products are right for you. Historical performance is often not a reliable indicator of future performance. You should not rely solely on historical performance to make investment decisions.

Blockchain Is a Game Changing Technology

Blockchain might be the most boring exciting technology since data storage and data centre based computing services went online and changed the world. What we now know and refer to as ‘the cloud’ was probably accelerated in many ways by the reframing and marketing of that simple phrase.

Blockchain faces a similar challenge to the cloud of 10 or 15 years ago. While it is a transformative technology it is still waiting for its mainstream marketing message breakthrough that catapults it into the everyday understanding of business and consumers.

So, what is the blockchain?

To say it is “a distributed database that is shared among the nodes of a computer network” tells most of us nothing. In simple terms, I think of blockchain as ‘the cloud’ for records and transactions. It doesn’t sound particularly significant but like many aspects of revolutionary technology, once it becomes mainstream it will change the world in previously unimaginable ways.

The technology is basically blocks of data that form a secure chain of records detailing transactions as they occur. The ledger that contains these transaction details is public, allowing complete transparency as anyone can view it at any time. The technology is also decentralised as no one entity has authority over the blockchain and its decision making it great for trustworthy digitally record keeping.

So, what are the practical use cases?

Imagine lodging your insurance claim and having it paid within the hour. No more claims departments for insurance companies. No more hassle or waiting for customers.

Or making an offer on a house and not only is it accepted within the hour it is also settled within the hour too. No more settlement agents. Move in the next day.

Even simple transactions such as registration of births, marriages, and deaths. Instantaneously recorded to the blockchain. Passports and travel records automated. No more unnecessary bureaucracy.

Today, cryptocurrencies allow for transactions between anyone without the need for a third party or bank. Effectively it cuts out the bank completely. We have previously seen the appearance of that evolving in finance, but, in many cases, it’s really just been lower cost crowd sourced third parties or tech platforms cutting out the banks. Eventually, there won’t be any third parties needed and the transactions will all be directly between the two parties via blockchain.

This is a really big deal because so many transactions and businesses are built on being a third party or intermediary. Many of these, if not all of them, will be eliminated.

Smart contracts, which are essentially code-based rules for defining a transaction, will allow every type of transaction that is currently recorded manually to be digitised. Think about all the different transactions in life that are completed and recorded in quite manual ways. Even those that are digital, it involves intermediaries and brings with it a whole range of extra costs and issues around trust and counter party.

Smart contracts will end up recording ownership of everything. Homes. Shares. All products bought and sold. All agreements made.

The emergence of the virtual world and metaverse will see increasing amounts of commerce go online. With that, we are already seeing the evolution of digital assets and NFTs. These digital assets while in the virtual world are still valuable assets and ownership of those assets is no less important than ownership of any real asset. In the years ahead, expect this to be an increasing mainstream aspect of life as people spend more and more time online.

There are the obvious emerging companies that will grow on the back of developing this technology and customising it for specific areas. But more importantly for all investors, just as with the emergence of the internet years ago, there are going to be efficiencies created for a range of existing businesses too.

It wasn’t that long ago we all lined up at the teller in the bank to deposit pay cheques or make withdrawals. Banks are a great example of how the internet revolutionised a traditional powerhouse industry. Now we bank on our phones. A lot has happened over the years.

Blockchain technology will have a similar impact as it becomes ubiquitous for financial records, medical records, supply chain and inventory, insurance, property sector, legal sector and obviously finance. There is an entirely new wave of technological disruption coming based on this technology alone.

There are some very interesting stocks with direct exposure to this technology, while many large blue-chip companies will benefit from incorporating it into their business operations, other will be disintermediated out of business. While the technology is still some time away from being mainstream, now is the time to become familiar with the implications of how it will start to playout.

General Advice Disclaimer: This information is of a general nature only and may not be relevant to your particular circumstances. The circumstances of each investor are different, and you should seek advice from an investment adviser who can consider if the strategies and products are right for you. Historical performance is often not a reliable indicator of future performance. You should not rely solely on historical performance to make investment decisions.

Are You Ready for What's Coming?

To quote the well-known pugilist and lesser-known philosopher Michael G. Tyson “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face”.

Right now, we are on the cusp of a once in a generation adjustment as the world moves from low inflation and low interest rates to high inflation and high interest rates. So, are you ready for what comes after you’ve been hit? Because inflation and interest rates are about to punch everyone in the face, consumers, businesses, governments and yes, investors.

Central banks around the world had their chance to deal with inflation proactively and they missed it. Inflation in the US is now at 8.5% and its 7.5% in Europe. There is an inflationary wildfire raging across the world and so far, central banks have turned up to fight it in clown suits with water pistols.

Yet, most are sleep walking into the situation unfolding. They have their heads in the sand, are in denial or simply not thinking objectively enough to assess what is happening. Individuals and institutions with vested interests talk in theory and forecasts on spreadsheets. They make the numbers fit their narrative.

This is a problem. They don’t understand how this really impacts the economy and society.

When I first started in the investment industry as a 21-year-old in 1997, it had been 10 years since the 1987 crash. Over the next several years as markets rose, the more seasoned investors would lament the fact that the younger generation had never seen a crash. They’d argue that it caused them to be overly optimistic in the face of rising risks as they had not experienced a genuine bear market.

The old heads were right. Nothing prior could prepare you for living and breathing in the moment of an actual crash. Not just a fall but a market that completely capitulates into free fall. The GFC provided everyone with that experience, and you become a better investor because of it.

Just as when I was a young adviser, as part of a generation of advisers and investors who had not experienced a crash, there is now a similar dynamic at play. Today, there is an entire generation of advisers and investors and for that matter businesspeople, bankers and executives who have never experienced high inflation and high interest rates.

This is a problem. They don’t know what they don’t know.

I continue to see people wheel out advice, commentary and strategies that may have worked for the last 15 years but are no longer appropriate for the way the world has changed going forward.

I’ve said this before, but I cannot emphasise it enough – high inflation and high interest rates are a game changer for investment portfolios. Most asset classes will need to adjust values lower, bonds, shares, and property. You’ll want to be positioned more defensively during that transition until the one-off adjustment occurs for asset values.

The level of complacency on this topic and impending adjustment astounds me. Most are completely underprepared for what’s coming and seem to prefer passive reassurance that all will be ok than preparing proactively for the inevitable. It is difficult but necessary to be proactive with the preparation of the transition from low interest rates to high interest rates.

This is a generational adjustment.

To a large degree, a big part of the problem is the misconception about what low rates and high rates actually are these days. The fatal flaw of those new to markets in the last 15 years is that they frame those questions within the context of their own universe of relative experience. However, we are breaking out of that cycle.

Ask anyone if interest rates can potentially go to 5% and I will be able to tell you how long they have been investing or advising for based on their answer.

Most with under 15 years of experience will dismiss such a suggestion out of hand as ridiculous. They say this not because it is ridiculous but because they’ve never seen it and the ramifications of that move are so significant that they refuse to consider it.

Conversely, anyone who remembers the 1990’s will say something like ‘It wouldn’t surprise me’. That’s because they remember what historically high interest rates look like at 15% plus and that historically normal interest rates are more likely between 5%-10%.

The last 15 years were the anomaly, not just the last 2 years.

Until everyone understands that the new interest rate cycle will see interest rates move towards more normal levels in the historical sense then they will continue to be underprepared for the problems that continue to evolve before us.

There will always be opportunities for long term growth, but it is critical to ensure you understand when pivotal moments of economic change require a more patient and defensive approach to portfolio management.

General Advice Disclaimer: This information is of a general nature only and may not be relevant to your particular circumstances. The circumstances of each investor are different, and you should seek advice from an investment adviser who can consider if the strategies and products are right for you. Historical performance is often not a reliable indicator of future performance. You should not rely solely on historical performance to make investment decisions.

Building a Great Nation

As a nation with a rich indigenous history, but still a relatively young, developed nation, only 200 odd years on from English settlement and a population of around 25 million, it’s sometimes difficult to imagine the potential for future greatness. Yet, on one side of the country to the west, you’ve got states with massive amounts of natural resources. While on the East, which was settled earlier, you have a financial centre and the heart of the nation’s industry. Is it possible for that same nation to emerge over the next 100-200 years as the world’s leading superpower?

Well, it did.

I just described the USA in 1850. Fast forward to 2022 and obviously the USA with a population of some 330 million is one of the wealthiest and most technologically advanced nations in the history of the world. So, what then could the future look like for Australia? How much potential does this nation have to not only be successful on the world stage; but to be a truly great economic power in the future?

This thought crossed my mind as I was on one of my early morning walks through The Rocks in the heart of Sydney. This area is where our early settlers and convicts worked some 200 plus years ago on the wharves. I imagine what their lives were like back then. Very tough. Even more, I wonder what they would think if they could see what has been created here in Sydney today. The Bridge. The Opera House. Circular Quay and the incredible beauty and lifestyle we get to experience here every day. I think they would be stunned.

We are so preoccupied with the very short term we don’t think about the very long term. Long term these days is considered around 3 years. You can’t build nations like that. Great nations are built on a vision of not only what is possible but on ambitions of what seems impossible and is pursued anyway. Truly great nations aspire to be more than anyone can imagine it to be right now. They are built on the back of people free to dream of creating greatness and a nation with the vision to help them do it.

In a world in as much turmoil as we currently have, it is easy to only see the negatives and decline. But that is not really our future. I see an Australia that will emerge in the decades, and century, ahead that outgrows its current status as a small but influential bit player on the global stage. This is merely a phase in our emerging growth, it is not our destiny. We need to think much bigger and realise we can create a truly great nation that one day grows up to become the world’s leading economic superpower. It will take more than a century. But the vision and actions required to do it can only start with the right mindset today.

General Advice Disclaimer: This information is of a general nature only and may not be relevant to your particular circumstances. The circumstances of each investor are different, and you should seek advice from an investment adviser who can consider if the strategies and products are right for you. Historical performance is often not a reliable indicator of future performance. You should not rely solely on historical performance to make investment decisions.

What the Bond Market Is Telling Investors

I had ‘bond market concerns’ listed as #10 in my ‘10 Themes for 2022’ article earlier this year. In my opinion, sustained low interest rates had created one of the biggest bubbles in the world and it was due to unravel. It’s an issue markets are not well prepared for because bonds are seen as very defensive. Usually that is true. But we do not live in usual times and as interest rates rise there were always going to be adverse consequences for bond values.

The beauty of bonds is that they are far better at pricing risk than share markets. In fact, that’s really all they do. Bond holders assess the yield return they need to justify the money they lend you for the risk you present to their capital. It applies to corporations as much as countries. In that sense, it is comparatively simple and carries far fewer of the multitude of emotions and variables of share markets and individual stocks.

Since the US Federal reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% earlier this month, share markets have rallied strongly. In a market where interest rates are starting to increase sharply, you’d expect share markets to fall, not rise. Meanwhile, in just the month of March, the 2-year US bond yield increased significantly from 1.31% to 2.30%. It’s a big deal. Rising bond yields lead to falling bond values, and that is reflected in the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index being down around 10% from its highs last year.

So, one of these markets has got it wrong, and it’s not bonds. 

The S&P500 is up 9% from its recent lows and in no way is any of the news better. If anything, the prognosis for global economy and equity markets is worse. Bond markets are working this out but share markets still haven’t caught on. The low interest rate party is over. Yet for some reason, presumably a combination of optimism, naivety and greed, equity markets are still in denial. 

But it’s not just the fact that interest rates are going much higher. Usually, interest rates need to go up to slow a booming economy. The real problem now is that interest rates need to go up and the global economy doesn’t look good. There are signs that the Europe and even the US are headed for recession, possibly early next year. As the yield curve starts to invert, the bond market is telling us recession is increasingly likely in the US.

While many institutions and analysts are going to become fixated on the debate of whether we will or won’t see a recession, they are kind of missing the point. Whether or not its officially a recession it’s pretty obvious that those economies will slow considerably. Company profits will suffer, and jobs will be lost. None of that is good for the economy or share markets.

There is a theory that share markets are efficient. That they are correctly priced at any given moment as they adjust instantly to new information, as all information is known by the market and is assumed to be correctly weighed and priced. It is a great theory. The problem is it’s not how markets actually work in practice. You see just how inefficient markets are in times of geopolitical and economic crisis. All sorts of distortions occur. That is what we are seeing that now.

While I think much of the recent surge is money flowing out of higher risk areas across the world and into comparatively safe markets, it does seem that equity markets will continue to be in denial until they are faced with actual interest rate increases of 0.5% multiple times. Until then, markets appear willing to believe the worlds current economic problems will simply improve from here by themselves.

Unfortunately, that isn’t going to happen.

The good news for the Australia economy amongst all of this is that we produce, in abundance, most of the commodities that the world needs more of, from wheat to iron ore to energy. We are a safe and stable country with low sovereign risk. As countries and corporations around the world look for where to safely invest for the future, we are fortunate to be at the top of the list.

So far, the Australian economy has been broadly insulated from the same inflationary levels as other nations. That won’t last much longer as prices across the board jump to even more extreme levels. From a stock perspective we have held core positions in Woodside Petroleum, Santos and BHP for some time and we have increased our holdings significantly over the course of this year too.

Overriding everything else in the short term is the outlook for higher inflation and rising interest rates and ensuring that our portfolios are prepared for that eventuality. We continue to hold an overweight cash position and I expect the stock market to pull back as the economic reality sets in. That reality may be closer than many investors realise if bond yields continue their dramatic rise.

General Advice Disclaimer: This information is of a general nature only and may not be relevant to your particular circumstances. The circumstances of each investor are different, and you should seek advice from an investment adviser who can consider if the strategies and products are right for you. Historical performance is often not a reliable indicator of future performance. You should not rely solely on historical performance to make investment decisions.

Seeing the Forest for the Trees

Amongst the sheer volume of urgent daily events, detail, and information to digest at the moment, the most important attribute for investors is to ensure that it doesn’t distract them from what matters most. Think long term. At a time like this, when everything seems to be on a knife edge, it is critical for investors to understand they need to zoom back out and not allow themselves to be engulfed by the all-consuming urgency of the 24-hour news cycle. It will overwhelm your thinking if you let it.

That said, the current short-term events from war in Ukraine, to supply chain disruptions, and inflation, do have significant long-term implications too. So, it’s important to understand that the macroeconomic and geopolitical events occurring now are changing the world. Understand also that unless there is a serious escalation in the war, investment markets will adjust and move on. But it is important to look through all the data and news and work out what actually matters from an investment perspective.

The main short-term trends are:

• Inflation was already heading higher across the world due to supply chain issues

• The war in Ukraine makes this worse as it’s forced almost every commodity price to increase

• The food commodity shortage has the potential to be an economic & humanitarian disaster

• Europe heading for recession with a low growth and high inflation environment which is bad

• USA is similar to Europe, but they have a better economic backdrop and prospects

• Australia is in a better position. Yes, high inflation is coming but likely higher growth too

Short term trends do matter for long term investors. They bring opportunities to take profit on an overpriced stock or buy an undervalued company. The short-term volatility will impact your entry and exit points for assets, the timing of when you might invest. This is especially an issue for new portfolios being established. However, it’s more important to understand the impact of the current situation on long-term global trends and adjust accordingly.

The main long-term trends are:

• Significant increase in defense spending globally

• Globalisation unwinding in preference for national interests

• Long term economic decoupling from China and the West

• Energy independence and growth in national renewable energy sources

• Sustainability refocuses to start with national security strategy

• Technological advancements continue regardless

Long term trends influence where you will invest. The increase in defense budgets globally will create huge demand and growth for a range of businesses across industries, not only defense. After decades of underinvestment in defence and short-sighted strategic thinking, the current crisis has awakened most countries to the need to become increasingly self-sufficient with more turbulent times ahead.

Chinese stocks and US listed Chinese companies, regardless of their returns and potential, remain uninvestable as far as I am concerned. Even when they are attractively priced, these companies (eg Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent) risk being torpedoed by their government on a whim, without notice. It makes the allocation of portfolio capital to this area too high a risk.

Beyond the obvious though, unless China categorically distances itself from Russia, the likely result is the West doing to China what they did to Russia, but over a 10-to-15-year time frame. So significant realignment is coming for all businesses doing business with China over the next decade. The flip side is more opportunities for businesses in Europe, the USA and Australia.

Energy across the board will be a huge focus. In the short term, it’s great for almost all energy companies as there simply needs to be more energy supply secured by Western nations. Long term, I expect a rapid rise in renewable energy as the climate issue merges with the strategic national security issue. Governments will push hard here for many years ahead, climate and sustainability will be the sell to the community, but the end game here is securing energy independence and national security.

The flow on effect of these huge new capital allocations are important.

But the #1 most important long term mega trend remains the continuous disruption of technology. Don’t lose sight of that. Even in a market where most tech stocks are out of favour, that remains the most important trend. It influences almost every investment decision I make. It influences the types of companies we buy shares in and those we avoid, which is just as important.

The short-term issues may impact the prices we pay and the timing of investments but behind the scenes, all sorts of incredible companies are continuing to work relentlessly to change the future. So, understand what’s going on in the short term, because it is important, but keep focused on the long term because that’s what really matters for long term investment returns.

General Advice Disclaimer: This information is of a general nature only and may not be relevant to your particular circumstances. The circumstances of each investor are different, and you should seek advice from an investment adviser who can consider if the strategies and products are right for you. Historical performance is often not a reliable indicator of future performance. You should not rely solely on historical performance to make investment decisions.

The Next Phase in the War

Geopolitical conflict is unpredictable. One of the major problems for financial markets given the situation in the Ukraine is that it could escalate or deescalate in any number of ways. It’s impossible to know what comes next.

Yet, as uncertain, and unpredictable as the entire situation is in Europe, I think the most probable outcome is very simple. Russia takes Ukraine while the USA, Europe and their allies allow it to happen. It seems the most realistic way it plays out without a major escalation. The alternatives are not great.

The US and Europe have been clear so far in stating they will not put troops on the ground in Ukraine and they will not put in place a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Both of those acts would spark a massive retaliation from Russia and probably lead to World War III. US President Biden said as much in a tweet over the weekend.

So, Putin likely gets Ukraine, for now at least, and probably in name only. In due course the Ukrainian people are sure to take it back. Putin needs to accomplish his objective though, declare victory, and save face, otherwise the stakes are raised higher. But Putin will go no further. The western world has collectively combined to collapse the Russian economy.

The counter measures from NATO countries means Russia have been crippled financially and economically. Not only from heavy sanctions, compounding their downfall is that almost every multinational company in the world is withdrawing and refusing to do business with them.

The most important next phase of the war is how China responds.

China has deep ties with Russia, but Putin’s strategic blunders and the fact that China is still an emerging power, and not the power it will one day be, puts them in a precarious position. Tolerance for a pro-Russian stance is almost nonexistent in Western Society now so it is a rare opportunity for the US to aggressively pursue its agenda without looking like the bad guy.

I would expect the US and Europe to apply maximum pressure on China to definitively choose sides. The current mood globally is very much one of “you are either with us, or you are against us”. The strategic rationale from the US seems obvious; if you are our enemy now and you will be in the future, we would prefer that battle now, before you are any bigger.

While the Chinese economy is significantly larger and more difficult to extricate from the global system than Russia it is now clear to China that a strategic misstep could see their emerging nation face similar devastating sanctions. This would be an economic catastrophe for not only China but indeed for the global economy. But if China continues to support Russia explicitly or implicitly it is very possible that it will come to that.

China though, are masters of passive aggressive business and political negotiations. There is no country better at using capitalist system against the West by punishing a company or an industry. It would not surprise me if the sudden ‘covid lock downs’ of entire Chinese cities, critical to the global supply chain, such as Shenzhen, was a warning from China to show they can do economic damage too.

To nullify a future adversary early in their ascent I expect the US and its allies to fully leverage the current situation to force China to make a call and not sit on the fence. Either way, how China proceeds from here will have a significant and lasting consequences for the entire world and its economy.

General Advice Disclaimer: This information is of a general nature only and may not be relevant to your particular circumstances. The circumstances of each investor are different, and you should seek advice from an investment adviser who can consider if the strategies and products are right for you. Historical performance is often not a reliable indicator of future performance. You should not rely solely on historical performance to make investment decisions. 

Everyone Is Printing New Menus

I took my 20-year-old daughter to dinner Thursday last week. I ordered the same $45 T-bone steak I’d ordered just the week before at a lunch, and again at a client lunch in December. It was amazing.

When the bill came it was $65. I queried the figure as I recalled seeing $45 on the menu as I ordered (I don’t forget numbers). They told me it was the correct price. Much to my daughter’s embarrassment, I asked to see the menu with that price on it. Sure enough, a nice shiny new menu said $65. It didn’t match the image I had in my head.

My daughter was starting to hide under the table at this point, but it was a matter of principal now. I asked them to check if I’d been given a different menu as I recalled specifically seeing $45 as the price. The restaurant manager came over shortly after and explained they have recently printed new menus and I had been given an old one.

There was no mention of price increases of 10%-50% across the board. Simply that they had printed new menus. I realised the menu was the same though. The only difference was the prices.

My 18-year-old son works part time at a fine dining Italian restaurant. I asked him if his work has put their prices up recently. He said he didn’t think so. I told him the story of the new menus. He said yes, his restaurant is printing new menus too.

I see. Restaurants and cafes don’t put their prices up, they just print new menus. Clever.

It’s a simple story that adds to the growing list of anecdotal evidence we are starting to see all around us. The canary in the coal mine for what’s to come for inflation and everyday consumers.

Prices are going up significantly.

Every business is seeing it. Talk to any builder and you’ll find they have had to move to ‘cost plus’ building contracts because fixed price contracts are killing their business as the price of building materials and contractors has skyrocketed.

Inflation is everywhere at the moment and while it was previously a supply chain issue, brought on by covid, that is starting to change fast. Wages growth is accelerating hard and fast. Talk to any recruitment firm and they will tell you salaries for a $70,000 role are now $100,000. Companies just need workers.

This was all before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Now, in addition to all the inflationary pressure mounting globally, we have a huge spike in the price of oil and gas as well as all types of commodities from iron ore to wheat. This is a serious problem for inflation and the global economy.

Later this week, we have CPI data from the US which is likely to show sustained high inflation. This will be followed shortly after by the European Central Bank announcement on rates. The ECB are in the impossible situation of trying to navigate their economy through what appears to be emerging stagflation situation of high inflation and low growth. Interest rates across the world are rising.

Meanwhile, here in Australia, the signs of inflation are all around us and the RBA continues to ignore the reality and fails to act. RBA boss Philip Lowe is doing his best impersonation of the dog with the coffee in the burning house ‘Its fine’ meme. If you’re not familiar with it just google ‘Its fine meme’. This is where we are at.

General Advice Disclaimer: This information is of a general nature only and may not be relevant to your particular circumstances. The circumstances of each investor are different, and you should seek advice from an investment adviser who can consider if the strategies and products are right for you. Historical performance is often not a reliable indicator of future performance. You should not rely solely on historical performance to make investment decisions. 

The Economic Response to War

The crisis in the Ukraine is a timely reminder of the genuine existential threats that we are faced with. A reminder that power, left unchecked, will corrupt, and seek more power. In Vladimir Putin, we have the world’s most dire threat since Hitler. It has been remarkable to see how quickly the world’s most powerful nations have mobilised to confront and nullify this threat. For all the political missteps that got us to this point, the world is now fully focused on the threat at hand. I am increasingly confident that the leaders of the western world are acting in the most rationale and pragmatic way possible to address this situation long term.

The invasion of Ukraine will have a far-reaching impact on the global economy. The economic and financial sanctions will have significant consequences, both intended and unintended. As necessary as these sanctions are, it makes for an even more dangerous time for the global economy. You cannot cut off a country the size of Russia and not have significant flow on effects. Obviously, it is essential to manage the crisis and the world will need to adjust, but that doesn’t make it any less risky in the financial sense. There is a risk that the Rouble collapses and potentially the entire Russian economy. The subsequent flow on effects will not be insignificant for the global economy.

Another concern is the potential for contagion in relation to the collapse of Russian companies or non-Russian companies with large exposure to Russia. There will be nations and banks with large exposure to assets and liabilities in Russia. Removing Russian banks from the SWIFT system is a powerful move but relatively untested at that scale. There are always two sides of the transaction to consider. There will be defaults and it will require intervention by international governments to manage this issue.

Energy prices and food commodities are going to go up, probably a lot. Russia controls about 40% of the natural gas supply in Europe. It is the 3rd largest oil producer in the world. Prices may spike creating an energy crisis that cripples the global economy and sparks inflationary pressures to levels even greater than they are currently. I have been surprised by Germany’s willingness to lead the way with sanctions and support given they source over 50% of their natural gas from Russia. It’s possible that Russia retaliates by turning off their supply to European nations dependent on them for energy. Sharp increase in energy prices will not only spur higher inflation, but it will also slow global growth.

There are significant long-term impacts too. Between the previous supply chain shocks from covid, and new ones from the current conflict, many weaknesses and vulnerabilities have been exposed. Countries will be far more strategic in pursuing a more robust and independent supply chain going forward. Increased prices sourcing goods that may not be as cost-effective is a small price to pay to ensure national security going forward.

You’ll see massive increases in military spending, especially from those nations threatened by Russia or China. The recent announcement by Germany to massively increase their defence budget marks a turning point. Since WWII, Germany has been neutral and reticent to be active in military conflict due to its past. But the threat that Putin now presents has been deemed large enough that Chancellor Olaf Scholz has made this adjustment with the full support of the national and international communities.

Importantly, for world peace in the years ahead, Putin has awakened the rest of the world from its slumber. The change in the geopolitical landscape in the past week has been greater than would ordinarily happen over the course of years. We have Sweden and Finland aligning more closely with the west and potentially resulting in their NATO membership and Switzerland breaking from its neutral stance to applying sanctions. While organisations such as the EU and NATO have been revitalised and empowered in the face of the crisis.

Initially, I felt the condemnations and sanctions were the worthless equivalent of ‘thoughts and prayers’ and did nothing to provide genuine assistance to the Ukrainian people. However, as these sanctions and support have been rapidly increased it is clear that the USA, Europe, and their allies are carefully and strategically navigating this situation. Their decisions are co-ordinated and considered. They are mindful that Russia is a nuclear power run by a power-hungry lunatic. They are clearly aware that perhaps the only thing more dangerous than a powerful and aggressive Putin is a weakened and cornered Putin. So far, they appear completely aligned and I believe they are prepared to do whatever needs to be done in response to any escalating threat Putin presents. While Ukraine may soon fall, Putin’s time is now limited.

Overall, the current situation with Russia overlays a significant new layer of risk across financial markets globally. This is over and above the significant existing concerns for inflationary and interest rates. Stock markets appear to be treading water as the situation evolves. It is possible that the current situation will result in a delay in the interest rate increases that were pending. This may be so, but if anything, it will be even more problematic later if inflation escalates and rate increases were delayed.

From a portfolio perspective, Australian stocks remains relatively insulated, while our international exposure is heavily weighted to US stocks and US dollars. We remain very underweight Europe and we avoid China. We retain an overweight cash position and will add to stocks on weakness as long-term buying opportunities emerge. 

General Advice Disclaimer: This information is of a general nature only and may not be relevant to your particular circumstances. The circumstances of each investor are different, and you should seek advice from an investment adviser who can consider if the strategies and products are right for you. Historical performance is often not a reliable indicator of future performance. You should not rely solely on historical performance to make investment decisions. 

My thoughts on Russia and Ukraine

The prospect of Russia invading the Ukraine is causing concerns across the world. It would likely lead to a military response from the US, Europe, and their allies. These situations can escalate quickly and for obvious reasons no one wants a conflict between nuclear powers. The West does not want a war and will negotiate to avoid a conflict with Russia. However, if Putin has decided to invade and take control of Ukraine, then no amount of diplomacy or negotiation will change his mind or nullify the threat.

While it is possible Putin is using the threat of war as a negotiation tactic to leverage a particular outcome, I do not think this is the case. If there is a diplomatic solution reached, I believe it is more likely a tactic from Putin to gain concessions and buy time as he continues to advance. Putin is approaching 70 and, in my view, is more concerned with solidifying his power, restoring Russia to its former glory, and cementing his place in history.

I think it is possible Russia escalate then de-escalate several times in the weeks ahead. It will provide Putin with intelligence around the response they can expect and applies maximum pressure and sustained anxiety in both the military sense and on the general public. One of Putin’s key weapons in that sense is certainly the Western media, both mainstream and social media. Perhaps though it will galvanise the USA against a common enemy and alleviate the polarised political environment at home.

No doubt Putin sees an opportunity. The US opened the door following their shambolic exit from Afghanistan last year. He knows the US are preoccupied with matters at home and with China. But it would be a mistake if the US were to prioritise their disputes with China over the risk of an aggressive Russia. While China may present more of a threat to the US as the worlds undisputed economic power, I believe Putin and Russia present a far greater threat to world peace.

There are parallels with China and their stance on Taiwan, but I think there is a significant difference between the two nations and their leaders. Putin is a megalomanic and will take Ukraine and then work his way across Europe. He is a genuine threat to world peace. China is more insular and though there are disputed territories that are strategically and historically important I don’t believe they are the same type of global threat. Putin will continue to forge an alliance with China to pressure the US and its allies to deal with two potential conflicts at the same time.

If Russia does invade the Ukraine, share markets will fall, at least initially. Given the uncertainty and fear, there will be a flight away from risk assets to defensive assets. Commodities and energy prices will spike much higher. But thereafter I’d expect stock markets generally to settle and business and consumers to carry on as normal. The biggest economic risk would likely be the inflationary impact of commodities and higher energy prices given the level of control Russia has over Europe’s energy market.

War is obviously horrific, but from a consumer’s perspective, how will it change your spending habits? What will you change in your daily life? It won’t change my daily routine. I will still go to the gym, work out and buy my coffee each morning. At work, I will still subscribe to Microsoft office and use my iPhone and all the other services we use in business. In the afternoon the shopping my family orders from Amazon will arrive too. There is a fear factor attached to the current situation. If Russia do invade the Ukraine, we can expect a significant response from the US, Europe, and their allies. But, after an initial shock, the majority of consumers and companies will quickly return to business as usual. I expect share markets will likely do the same. 

What History Teaches Us About Finding the Next Giant Tech Companies

If history has taught us anything it is that there are patterns that tend to repeat. I find these patterns often flag the warning signs that are useful reminders of the negative consequences of past cycles and events. Over the course of history these apply to all sorts of situations including overheated markets & stock market crashes, geopolitical tensions & war, and government spending & debt crises.

Investors though are not typically very good at studying history (or at least remembering it). It is one of the reasons why there will always be booms and busts. Partially, its due to human behavior driven by fear and greed and by the time those investors gain the necessary experience to take advantage of similar events as they repeat there is a new batch of people seeing a situation unfold for the first time. But failing to learn from history does not only apply to dramatic catastrophes.

We often overlook the patterns of success too.

The great companies of the last 10-20 years, Amazon, Apple, Google, and Microsoft are all trillion-dollar plus companies today. In the past 10 years, the share prices of these companies have increased in value by 10x or more. They have seen extraordinary growth and they are all still rapidly growing companies despite their size.

Perhaps the most interesting thing to me is that 10 years ago they were already huge companies. They were market leaders that many thought were overpriced and didn’t buy. Back then they were $100b and $200b companies. For many, it was difficult to see the upside. They were viewed as expensive. My point here is that to find the next tech giants that deliver exceptional long term returns we don’t need to scour the earth looking at small companies. High growth large companies have that potential too.

People generally aren’t great at conceptualizing or comprehending exponential growth over the long term, especially when that growth rate is very high. A company share price worth $1 increasing by 10% per annum would be at $4.18 after 15 years. Compare that to a $1 company share price that increases by 20% per annum and after 15 years it would be at $15.41. From there it starts to get ridiculous but for the sake of the exercise I’ll continue. At 30% per annum a company with a $1 share price would reach $51.19 a share after 15 years.

What history tells me is that the next giant tech companies are already well-known companies we (or our kids or grandkids) use every day. They are emerging global leaders and even though they may worth $50b to $200b they are still growing at 15%-20% plus per annum. It is possible that some of these companies become the trillion-dollar companies of the next 10 years. In the next few weeks, I’ll write more on this topic and outline the attributes I look for in these types of businesses and provide a few examples of stocks I think have this potential.

General Advice Disclaimer: This information is of a general nature only and may not be relevant to your particular circumstances. The circumstances of each investor are different, and you should seek advice from an investment adviser who can consider if the strategies and products are right for you. Historical performance is often not a reliable indicator of future performance. You should not rely solely on historical performance to make investment decisions.

Eye of the Storm

We are living in unique times. There are a range of issues that make investing in this environment very challenging. This market is the most uncertain I have seen since the start of Covid. For good reason too. With inflation at 7% in the US, the Federal Reserve will likely start increasing interest rates from next month. Some institutions are now forecasting up to 7 interest rate increases this year. We also have geopolitical tensions as the prospect of conflict between Russia and the Ukraine intensifies. Not to mention the significant ongoing effects globally of the covid pandemic. After a big drop in January, markets have settled somewhat, but I would be extremely surprised if this is the end of the volatility.

In the very short term, there are real headwinds for markets, and I believe the change in monetary policy after 15 years of low rates is still being digested by markets. Wages growth due to labour shortages is now resulting in big jumps in salaries and will continue to put even more pressure on inflation and in turn interest rates in the short term. Even if inflation is transitory, interest rates will settle higher than they are currently. So, if the data from the US doesn’t show easing inflation soon then the volatility of January will likely be revisited at some point in the next couple of months.

Usually, when a market falls sharply you are rewarded by buying the dip. But the current situation the world faces isn’t a normal dip simply occurring because of a lack of confidence and over selling. We are seeing a fundamental shift in the rules of the game. Inflation is going higher at the moment and interest rates are poised to do the same. We are at an inflection point. It makes markets volatile as investors adjust rapidly to new information that either confirms or changes their view on inflation and interest rates. This is a market that will reward those who are patient over those who are bold and rush in.

However, from a long-term perspective, I am not concerned. If any of the current headwinds eventuate, there is very little I would do differently with regards to the specific stocks we invest in. We buy shares in great companies. So, regardless of short-term concerns, we will still hold stocks like Microsoft and Amazon in our client portfolios for the long term. The types of companies you want to own at the core of your portfolio are those that are great businesses, market leaders with great products and services and reliable earnings. Businesses that can easily scale but cannot be easily replicated and importantly have pricing power.

When a business has a unique product or service it can increase its prices and customers will stay. A good example is McDonalds who late last year passed on price increases of 6% in the US without missing a beat. Think of a company that could increase its prices by 10% and you’d still buy its product or service. That’s the hallmark of a great company, and it allows them to sustain their growth. This is especially important in times of rising inflation because the company can increase its prices to pass on costs and customers will pay the higher prices. So regardless of short-term trials and tribulations, companies with these attributes will do well over the long term in any economic environment.

It is said that time in the market, not timing the market is what matters most for long term investors. While that is broadly true the one situation that I have seen timing matter more than any other is investing a lump sum of cash in a volatile or sharply falling market. For existing portfolios, we hold more cash than usual, sure. It does make it more difficult for investors investing an overweight cash position into stocks. This is especially the case for those setting up a new portfolio or who have sold a business and have new cash to invest. But patience is key and over time opportunities to buy into core positions progressively will emerge.

I am as optimistic about the future as anyone. I am very bullish on the prospects of the share market over the long term and there are some fantastic companies out there that will do very well over time. That said I am cautious in the very short term. I don’t believe that the net result of 15 years of low interest rates coming to an end is a 3 week drop in January that recovers in February. That doesn’t make sense to me. The higher interest rates coming change the mathematics that underpins asset valuations, and the higher costs will impact everyone’s bottom line. I think cash is king for now and I am investing it slowly, progressively, and selectively adding to our high conviction stocks. Sometimes the most important part of managing money is protecting the downside risk at the expense of potentially higher returns. 

General Advice Disclaimer: This information is of a general nature only and may not be relevant to your particular circumstances. The circumstances of each investor are different, and you should seek advice from an investment adviser who can consider if the strategies and products are right for you. Historical performance is often not a reliable indicator of future performance. You should not rely solely on historical performance to make investment decisions.